Asian Robusta remains a strategic component of the European green coffee supply chain. Vietnam, Indonesia and India are key origins for industrial coffee, soluble production and many blends requiring continuity, body and economic sustainability.

But in 2026, the issue is not only how much Robusta is produced. It is how much Robusta can move through the supply chain, within which timelines, at which costs and with which level of reliability.

Vietnam: higher output, but timing still matters

According to USDA, Vietnam’s production is forecast to increase by 800,000 bags to a record 32.5 million bags in 2026/27. Robusta accounts for most of this figure, with 31.4 million bags forecast. Vietnamese green bean exports are projected at 25.4 million bags, supported by higher supplies.

This reinforces Vietnam’s role as a key origin for the industrial coffee market. However, even with higher volumes, availability for European buyers depends on harvest timing, stock release, committed contracts, freight rates and shipping schedules.

Indonesia: a more fragile production outlook

Indonesia presents a different picture. USDA forecasts total production in 2026/27 to fall by 1 million bags to 11.4 million. Robusta output is expected to decline by 1 million bags to 10 million, due to lower yields. The report links this decrease to excessive rainfall that disrupted flowering and cherry formation in the lowland areas of Southern Sumatra and Java, where around 75% of Indonesian coffee is grown.

The USDA Indonesia report also confirms an 8% decline forecast to 11.38 million bags, with green bean exports projected at 7 million bags for 2026/27. The same update notes that 2025/26 Arabica production had been revised down due to floods affecting Aceh and North Sumatra.

Exports and internal logistics

The ICO Coffee Market Report for July 2026 adds another important layer. In June 2026, exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania fell by 2.4% year-on-year. The decline was led by Indonesia, whose exports dropped by 33.3% to 0.58 million bags, while India and Vietnam increased by 14.6% and 6.1%, respectively.

 

The ICO notes that a direct effect has not been confirmed, but shortages of subsidized diesel fuel in Sumatra may have disrupted domestic transport and deliveries. Travel time from Medan to Jakarta reportedly increased from around five to ten days. The severe flooding that affected the region in November 2025 may also have constrained production and exports.

These figures highlight an essential point: availability does not depend only on bags produced. It also depends on the ability to harvest, process, move and ship coffee regularly.

Recent events and infrastructure vulnerability

Recent environmental events in Asia reinforce this reading, even where no direct coffee-market impact has been documented. In September 2026, the eruption of Anak Krakatau in Indonesia forced eight airports to suspend operations, affecting more than 1,500 flights and 170,000 passengers; maritime traffic in the Sunda Strait continued, but vessels were advised to remain cautious.

In Nepal, floods triggered by a glacier collapse on 26 August 2026 caused severe damage to housing, infrastructure and roads. The Logistics Cluster reported washed-away roads, areas accessible only by helicopter or drone, the closure of the Rasuwagadhi border crossing between China and Nepal, and congestion at other entry points.

Nepal is not a major green coffee origin, so it should not be artificially treated as a coffee-specific market case. But these episodes are relevant for agricultural commodities more broadly: production and logistics are increasingly exposed to climate, infrastructure and territorial risks.

What this means for European buyers

For roasters, importers and B2B operators, Asian Robusta remains central, but it must be read origin by origin. Vietnam may offer higher volumes, Indonesia shows more fragile production and logistics signals, and India may help compensate part of the flow.

The strategy cannot be limited to comparing FOB prices. It must include physical availability, arrival timing, quality, stocks, logistics reliability and landed cost.

At Qahwa, we read Asian Robusta as a key component of the European supply chain. Not only for price, but for its role in ensuring continuity, risk visibility and sourcing aligned with the needs of the industry.