September is an important month for reading the green coffee market. After the European summer slowdown, buyers, roasters and importers return to planning purchases, contracts, hedging and physical arrivals. But the market cannot be read through price alone.
The latest available data points to a transition phase: production forecasts for 2026/27 suggest a larger global supply, while certified stocks, volatility and physical availability still indicate a selective market.
According to the International Coffee Organization, the ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.26 US cents/lb in July 2026, up 15.4% from June. The ICO linked the rally to supply concerns, weather issues in Brazil, a stronger El Niño outlook and tighter immediately deliverable Arabica supplies.
August confirmed a similar price level: the monthly I-CIP average stood at 287.29 US cents/lb. In the first four recorded days of September, the partial average was 272.04 US cents/lb: useful to monitor, but not yet representative of the full month.
Exports: the market is not moving uniformly
On the trade side, world exports of all forms of coffee reached 11.88 million bags in June 2026, compared with 11.84 million in June 2025. However, in the first nine months of coffee year 2025/26, from October 2025 to June 2026, exports were slightly lower: 106.16 million bags, compared with 106.59 million in the same period a year earlier.
The picture changes significantly by coffee group. According to the ICO, during the first nine months of coffee year 2025/26, Arabica’s share of green bean exports fell to 60.4%, from 63.7% the previous year. This confirms a trend already visible in previous months: Robusta continues to play a more structural role in global flows, especially for industrial and soluble coffee.
Certified stocks: the physical availability issue
For buyers, the key point is the average price, but also it is immediately deliverable supply. In July 2026, London certified Robusta stocks rose slightly to 0.69 million bags, while US certified Arabica stocks fell to 0.29 million bags, down 30% from June and at their lowest level since January 2024.
This explains why the market may look more comfortable in forecasts, while still remaining tight in short-term physical availability. For a roaster or importer, the question is not only “where is coffee trading”, but which coffee is available, where it is located, with which specifications and within which delivery window.
Forecasts for 2026/27
The USDA “Coffee: World Markets and Trade” report, published in July 2026, forecasts world coffee production for 2026/27 at a record 189.7 million bags, up 10.8 million from the previous year. World green bean exports are forecast at 131.4 million bags, while global consumption is expected to reach a record 179.7 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to rise for the second consecutive year to 26.3 million bags, while remaining below the long-term average.
Brazil remains the main rebalancing factor: USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2026/27 crop at a record 71.9 million bags, with Arabica recovering sharply to 47.5 million. Vietnam, Ethiopia and Uganda are also identified among the countries with record or rising output.
What to watch in the second half
The second half of 2026 will therefore be a verification phase. Production figures suggest a larger supply, but the industry will need to assess how quickly that coffee actually enters commercial channels.
The main variables remain: the pace of Brazil’s harvest, the rebuilding of certified stocks, Asian Robusta availability, logistics timing, differentials, weather in producing regions and producers’ willingness to sell steadily.
At Qahwa, we read these data points as part of the same dynamic: price, physical availability and logistics can no longer be separated. The second half will not be defined only by how much coffee is produced, but by how much coffee is actually available, documented and deliverable for the European market.