The Strait of Hormuz has returned to the spotlight in recent weeks due to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf region. The escalation of military activity and the risk of disruptions or restrictions to maritime traffic have once again raised concerns in global markets, particularly in the energy sector.

This maritime passage is crucial: around one-fifth of the world’s oil flows through it. Even without an actual disruption, an increase in perceived risk is enough to trigger immediate effects on crude oil prices and maritime insurance costs.

In recent weeks, increased volatility in energy markets has already been observed, along with rising insurance premiums for vessels transiting through the area.

Why it also affects coffee: the link with energy and logistics

Coffee does not significantly transit through the Strait of Hormuz, but it is highly exposed to the dynamics originating there.

The first impact is related to energy costs. Maritime transport, a key component of the coffee supply chain, is heavily dependent on fuel prices. When oil prices rise, container shipping costs tend to follow.

A second factor is the domino effect on global logistics. Tensions in a critical chokepoint like Hormuz tend to ripple across the entire transport system, contributing to:

• increased freight rates even on unaffected routes
• congestion and delays
• the adoption of alternative, more expensive shipping routes

In a market already shaped by logistical fragility in recent years, these dynamics further amplify uncertainty.

Coffee market: growing sensitivity to geopolitical factors

In recent years, the coffee market has shown increasing exposure to factors beyond agricultural production. While climate and harvests once dominated the narrative, elements such as geopolitics, energy, and logistics are now playing a more central role.

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz fit into this broader context, where the final price of coffee is influenced by a complex set of interconnected variables.

In recent weeks, renewed volatility in logistics costs has added to existing pressures, contributing to a less predictable environment for market participants

Short-term scenarios: between stabilization and escalation

In the short term, developments in the Gulf region will be critical.

A de-escalation could support a gradual easing of energy costs and improved transport stability. Conversely, prolonged tensions or escalation could lead to:

• further increases in logistics costs
• greater commodity price volatility
• challenges in procurement planning

For the coffee sector, this means operating in a context where risk management is becoming increasingly central.

Qahwa’s perspective

In a global landscape marked by growing complexity, even dynamics that appear distant from the coffee supply chain can have tangible market effects.

Qahwa closely monitors geopolitical and logistical developments, aware of their impact on availability, costs, and supply stability. In this context, continuous market analysis is essential to interpret changes and support informed decision-making across the entire supply chain.