In the green coffee market, looking only at the futures price can be misleading. Futures are an important signal, but they do not fully explain physical availability, differentials, logistics costs or the real purchasing conditions faced by roasters and importers.
The ICO Coffee Market Report for May 2026 shows this contradiction clearly. The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 256.05 US cents/lb, down 3.8% from April, as the market reacted to expectations of improved supply from Brazil. At the same time, the report showed that London certified Robusta stocks stood at 0.64 million bags, while US certified Arabica stocks fell to 0.48 million bags, down 13.5% from the previous month.
Financial price and physical availability are not the same thing
The futures price reflects expectations, hedging activity, financial positioning and macro news about crops. Physical availability depends on coffee that is actually present, graded, certified, shippable and suitable for a buyer’s quality requirements.
That is why a market can look weaker from a financial point of view and still remain tight in physical terms. If certified stocks are low, if shipments are delayed or if certain qualities are less available, the final price paid by a roaster may not immediately follow a decline in the board price.
Why certified stocks matter
ICE-certified stocks are a useful indicator because they represent coffee available under standards recognised by the market. They do not represent total global availability, but they help buyers understand whether the physical market is comfortable or under pressure.
In early July, Trading Economics reported that ICE-certified Arabica stocks had fallen to 377,465 bags, the lowest level since March 2024, while Arabica futures were trading around $3.1 per pound. (Trading Economics)
This helps explain why the market can react strongly even when production prospects improve. If nearby availability remains limited, buyers still need to compete to cover short-term deliveries.
What this means for the B2B supply chain
For importers, roasters and distributors, reading the market correctly requires combining several layers: futures, certified stocks, origin availability, differentials, logistics, quality and delivery timing.
The question is not only “where is coffee trading today?”. It is “which coffee is physically available, where is it located and when can it arrive?”.
In the current market, the strongest strategy is to combine financial market monitoring with clear visibility on physical availability. Because in green coffee, the visible price is only part of the story.